AI Decision Support Tools: Make Smarter Choices with Decisions

A mid-career professional needs to decide whether to accept a promotion that involves relocation.

1. 1

   Describe your decision: 'Accepting a promotion requiring relocation to a new city.'

   The AI identifies initial pros and cons related to career advancement, salary increase, and the impact of moving.

2. 2

   Generate analysis for short (0-6 months), medium (6-24 months), and long-term (2-10+ years) horizons.

   Factors like 'initial moving stress' (short-term con) and 'long-term career trajectory' (long-term pro) are generated and scored.

3. 3

   Adjust the weight for each time horizon, prioritizing long-term career growth.

   The overall score shifts to reflect the increased importance of your future career prospects.

4. 4

   Review the pre-mortem analysis: 'What could go wrong in one year if I accept?'

   AI suggests failure scenarios like 'difficulty integrating into the new city' or 'underestimating the cost of living,' along with missed signals and preventative measures.

A small business owner is considering investing in new equipment to increase production capacity.

1. 1

   Input the decision: 'Invest $50,000 in new manufacturing equipment.'

   The AI proposes factors like 'increased output efficiency' (pro), 'initial capital outlay' (con), and 'potential for equipment obsolescence' (con).

2. 2

   Assign importance scores (1-10) to factors like 'ROI timeframe' and 'market demand stability.'

   Factors with higher importance scores have a greater impact on the final decision score.

3. 3

   Analyze the decision across short-term (cash flow impact), medium-term (production gains), and long-term (equipment lifespan).

   The tool provides subtotals for each horizon, highlighting where the investment's impact is most significant.

4. 4

   Examine the pre-mortem: 'Imagine the equipment investment fails within 18 months. Why?'

   AI might identify failure points such as 'unexpected maintenance costs,' 'a sudden drop in demand,' or 'integration issues with existing systems.'

A tech startup is deciding whether to pivot its core product to target a new industry segment.

1. 1

   Define the decision: 'Pivot product focus from B2C to B2B for the healthcare industry.'

   The AI suggests factors like 'access to a larger market' (pro), 'need for significant product re-engineering' (con), and 'potential loss of existing user base' (con).

2. 2

   Run the analysis, paying close attention to the 'One-Way vs. Two-Way Door' classification.

   The AI classifies the pivot as a 'One-Way Door' decision, explaining that reversing course would be extremely difficult and costly.

3. 3

   Review the confidence score and any 'Missing Information' warnings.

   The tool might indicate low confidence in 'long-term market adoption projections' and prompt the user to conduct further market research.

4. 4

   Use the pre-mortem to identify potential failure points for the pivot.

   AI generates scenarios like 'failure to meet healthcare compliance standards' or 'inability to gain traction with enterprise sales teams,' along with missed signals and preventative actions.